It's a Planner's Market, Not a Gambler's Market

This market feels familiar.

It reminds me of the years after the Great Recession — once the short sales and foreclosures had finally cleared the system. That period wasn’t flashy. There was no explosive growth. What we saw instead was slow, steady progress in both pricing and transactions.

It wasn’t a gambler’s market.

Speculators weren’t rushing in, buying anything they could flip and assuming appreciation would save them. Most of them were still recovering from the last cycle.

What we had instead was the opposite.

It was a planner’s market.

Lessons From the Last Reset

I was there before the run-up, when fundamentals didn’t seem to matter and fast appreciation covered a lot of mistakes.

Until it didn’t.

I was also there after the fall, when sellers were everywhere yelling:

FOR SALE — MAKE AN OFFER!

And no one answered.

That period forced a deep education in fundamentals:

• Which properties actually hold value
  
  
• Which locations are truly durable
  
  
• How cost to own compares to real rental income
  
  
• Why fixed-rate debt matters — and variable debt can be dangerous
  
  

I helped short-term flippers exit properties for far less than they paid, just relieved to get out.

And I helped disciplined investors acquire prime real estate at steep discounts.

Then, for years, I helped buyers acquire properties that:

• Cost little to nothing to own
  
  
• Produced steady cash flow
  
  
• Appreciated gradually
  
  
• Were paid for by renters
  
  

That quiet, disciplined phase set the stage for the next major run-up — which always comes.

Where We Are Now

We’re back in that same planner’s phase.

After several years of slowed transactions, hesitant buyers, and investors exiting, the market is stabilizing.

Transactions are slowly picking back up. Prices are leveling out, and in some cases ticking upward.

Not a surge.

A reset.

Discipline on Both Sides

Today’s market is defined by discipline.

Buyers are careful. They’re testing prices, digging deeper in inspections, scrutinizing HOA finances, and walking away from deals that don’t pencil.

Sellers aren’t desperate. Most have low mortgage rates, strong equity, and the ability to wait. Many are choosing not to sell unless terms truly meet their goals.

When both sides are disciplined, markets don’t crash.

They stabilize — and grow steadily.

What This Means for Buyers

You have both power and time, if you stay deliberate.

Underwrite deals at today’s rates, not hoped-for future ones. Assume flat pricing, modest rent growth, and no immediate refinance upside.

If a deal works now, future rate cuts are upside — not survival.

Good opportunities still exist. The key is patience and discipline.

What This Means for Sellers

You’re in a strong position, but pricing matters.

Today’s buyers are selective. The Fed isn’t coming to rescue overpriced listings, and many deals are falling apart during diligence.

Clean listings, accurate financials, realistic pricing, and HOA clarity matter more than ever.

Preparation is what gets deals to the closing table.

What This Means for Owners

Renters are still booking, but expectations are higher.

Listings need to justify pricing. Photos, descriptions, light updates, and back-of-house consistency all matter.

In a planner’s market, the properties that perform best — and sell most smoothly — are not just rentable, but predictable and financeable.

That’s why many owners focus not just on bookings, but on protecting the long-term value of the asset.

The Bottom Line

This isn’t a market for guessing or rushing.

It’s a market that rewards:

• Discipline
  
  
• Patience
  
  
• Quality assets
  
  

That’s not a bad market.

That’s a planner’s market.

If you want to understand how your property or plans fit into this phase of the cycle, start with a conversation — not a commitment.