I think the Destin Area real estate market is bottoming out… and in the case of the single-family home market, I believe we may have already turned the corner.

This week, I’m breaking down three things:

• Why I think the bottom is in (or very close)
• Where I expect prices to head in 2026–2027
• How buyers, sellers, and owners can take advantage of this moment

Let’s get into it.

Okaloosa Island Condos

1. Median Sales Prices Are Down — Significantly

Since June, the median sales price (YoY) for Okaloosa Island condos has dropped every single month. Not small drops either:

• August: -48.2%
  
  
• September: -52.7%
  
  
• October: -34.5%
  
  

Year-to-date, sale prices are down -11.8%.

Clearly: prices are down.

But here’s the important twist.

2. Median List Prices Are Still Positive

Despite those big sales price declines, median list prices are still slightly up: +0.9% YTD.

That tells us something important:

Sellers are not panicking.
They aren’t fire-selling. They’re simply choosing not to list.

This is classic bottom-of-the-market behavior.

3. Supply Is Drying Up

Sellers are either pulling listings or choosing not to list at all.

New listings YTD: -21.8%

Some of the biggest drops came during peak season:

• April: -54.5%
  
  
• July: -55.6%
  
  
• August: -45.8%
  
  

When sellers retreat, it’s usually because they don’t like the prices they’re seeing — so they sit tight until the market turns.

4. Sales Volume Is Down

Transactions are down -25.4% YTD.

When supply shrinks, transactions shrink.
It’s simple: fewer properties available = fewer deals.

What the Data Tells Us

Sellers who were willing to sell at “market value” have already sold.
Everyone else? They’re staying put.

This drop in supply, combined with easing rates and strong demand, will eventually push prices higher.

My expectation:
2026 starts the climb.
2027 accelerates it.

Owners: Want to know what your OKI condo is worth today?
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Destin / Miramar Beach Condos

1. Sales Prices Are Rising Again

I believe the condo market here is at (or very near) the bottom.

Here’s why:

Median sales prices YoY for the last three months:

• September: +2.6%
  
  
• October: +9.3%
  
  
• November: +9.8%
  
  

This matters because the months before that were rough:

• April: -26.1%
  
  
• May: -26.5%
  
  
• July: -25.3%
  
  
• August: -18.5%
  
  

YTD prices are still down -5.8%, but the trend has clearly reversed.

2. List Prices Are Stabilizing

The first seven months of the year showed declining list prices.
But the last four?

• August: +3.4%
  
  
• September: -9.4%
  
  
• October: +1.9%
  
  
• November: -4.8%
  
  

YTD list prices: -3.6%.

Not falling off — leveling off.

3. Transactions Are Surging

This is the strongest sign of recovery.

YoY transactions since June:

• June: +14.1%
  
  
• July: +40.7%
  
  
• August: +25.9%
  
  
• September: +45.9%
  
  
• October: +70%
  
  
• November: +146.4%
  
  

That’s the market saying:
“We agree on price again.”

4. Inventory Is Still Low

New listings are still down -4.0% YTD.

Sellers are cautious — they usually jump back in after prices rise, not before.

Bottom Line

Good properties are selling fast.
Sales prices are rising.
List prices aren’t far behind.

This is exactly what the bottom looks like.

If prices keep climbing, sellers will re-enter the market — and quickly.

Buyers: Want deals before prices rise?
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Destin / Miramar Beach Houses

I believe the house market here has already bottomed and is now moving upward.

Here’s why:

1. Sales Prices Are Up — Big Time

Since June, YoY single-family prices have jumped:

• July: +16.6%
  
  
• August: +16.3%
  
  
• September: +27.8%
  
  
• October: +23.0%
  
  

That’s real growth.

Yet YTD prices are only up 0.9%.

That tells us there are still underpriced homes — but that window is closing fast.

2. Transactions Are Surging

Listings sold since June:

• June: +15.2%
  
  
• July: +14.6%
  
  
• August: +25%
  
  
• September: +45.5%
  
  
• October: +55.6%
  
  

YoY sales volume: +10.5%.

More deals = more confidence = more momentum.

3. Sellers Are Coming Back

New listings YTD are up 10.2%.
Key months:

• March: +24%
  
  
• May: +30%
  
  
• September: +26.5%
  
  
• October: +27.9%
  
  

When sellers return, it signals something simple:

They think the market is turning.

4. List Prices Haven’t Moved Yet

List prices are up only +0.4% YTD.

October and November even showed declines.

This is one of the last remaining “deal windows” before list prices start catching up to sales prices.

Owners: Want to boost your rental income before prices rise?
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What It All Means

Here’s the pattern across the board:

• Sellers willing to accept market value are selling.
  
  
• Low-priced inventory is being burned off.
  
  
• Supply remains tight — most owners are staying put.
  
  
• Transactions are accelerating.
  
  
• Rates are easing.
  
  
• Demand is building.
  
  

Condos lagged.
Houses led.
But both are showing the same bottoming signals now.

So… Has the Market Bottomed?

In my view:

Yes.
And for houses: it already has.

Most owners aren’t dumping properties.
They’re sitting tight.
And they’re certainly not wholesaling at distressed prices.

This is exactly what the bottom of the market always looks like.

Where We’re Heading

2026: Prices rise slowly… until they rise quickly.
2027: They rise quickly.
After that: Sellers rush in.
And then: Buyers jump off the sidelines, driven by FOMO.

This is how every recovery phase begins.

Opportunity Is Knocking

This is the same kind of market people talk about years later:

“I’m so glad I bought back then.”
or
“I wish I would have bought when prices were still low.”

Almost no one regrets buying a beach property 10 years ago.
Almost everyone regrets not buying.

And this uneasy, choppy, bottoming-out phase?
It’s where the best deals get made.

If You Want to Take Advantage of This Window

Buying, selling, or boosting rental income — I’ll help you build a simple plan based on your goals.

Click here to tell me where you’re at, and I’ll point you to your best opportunities.